By: Kelly Asche
A new report by the Center for Rural Policy will be published in early November focused on trends in nursing home facility beds. As many of you may have heard or experienced, nursing homes across Minnesota have been either closing or reducing the number of beds they have available, lately due to workforce shortages.
The pattern is worrisome because our population is beginning to age very quickly. In 2024, the oldest person of the Baby Boomer generation turned 75. In the healthcare industry, this is a significant milestone. It’s a reminder that demand for long-term care among our elderly population is going to skyrocket over the next 20 to 30 years.
However, demand for these beds will not peak at the same time across all of Minnesota. It will actually peak much sooner in rural Minnesota compared to our more metropolitan areas, largely because rural populations are on average older.
To estimate peak demand, we used the 2023 Profile of Older Americans, which provides the percentage of the U.S. 65+ population being cared for in nursing facilities. We can break it down by age group:
- 65 to 74, 1%
- 75 to 84, 3%
- 85+, 8%
By applying that to Minnesota’s population projections provided by the Minnesota State Demographic Center, we can see that demand will increase significantly until about 2045. It peaks in 2047 with an estimated 37,234 individuals needing nursing facility beds. Demand plateaus from there until 2055 (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Demand for nursing facility beds is projected to increase significantly until 2040. It will then begin to plateau, peak in 2047, and gradually decrease. Data: Profile of Older Americans & Minnesota Demographic Center Population Projections
However, Figure 1 shows statewide data. If we break the data out across rural-urban categories, the trends end up looking very different. Figure 2 shows that demand will peak in entirely rural counties significantly sooner than other county groups: 2037, compared to 2047 and 2055 in the other county groups.
Figure 2: Entirely rural counties will experience peak demand for nursing facility beds among population 65+ significantly sooner than other county groups. Data: Profile of Older Americans & Minnesota Demographic Center Population Projections
Figure 3 shows that the counties in the Northwest and Southwest corners of the state will experience peak demand for nursing facilities significantly sooner than the rest of Minnesota. These counties are estimated to have peak demand between 2025 and 2030, while other rural regions of Minnesota will peak five to ten years later: 2040 to 2045.
Figure 3: Northwest and Southwest Minnesota are estimated to see peak demand for nursing facility beds about 10 years before the rest of the state. Data: Profile of Older Americans & Minnesota Demographic Center Population Projections
What this means is that rural areas have a significantly shorter time span in which to make changes in their capacity to serve their elderly population. However, this is going to be very difficult given the current trends occurring in nursing care facility capacity.